2026 NFL Season Predictions: Part One — The AFC

The 2026 NFL season is here, which means it’s time to do one of my favorite things: make predictions that will probably look either brilliant or completely ridiculous a few months from now.

For this exercise, I went through the entire 2026 schedule game by game. No projected win totals. No vague “I think they’ll be around .500.” I picked a winner and loser for every matchup and let the standings fall where they fell.

Today, we’re starting with the AFC.

And if my predictions are even remotely close, there are going to be some very good teams sitting at home when the playoffs begin.

AFC East

1. Buffalo Bills — 12–5 — Division Champions
 2. New England Patriots — 11–6 — Wild Card
 3. New York Jets — 3–14
 4. Miami Dolphins — 1–16

Buffalo remains the class of the AFC East, but I don’t think this division is the runaway people might expect.

I have the Bills finishing 12–5 and taking the division, but New England is right behind them at 11–6 and grabbing the AFC’s top wild-card spot.

That gives the East two legitimate playoff teams at the top—and an absolute disaster at the bottom.

I have the Jets winning only three games and Miami winning just one.

Yes. One.

A 1–16 prediction is aggressive, but going through Miami’s schedule one game at a time, I simply couldn’t find many places where I trusted them enough to give them the win.

The result is one of the widest gaps between the top and bottom of any division in football.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens — 11–6 — Division Champions
 2. Cincinnati Bengals — 10–7 — Eliminated
 3. Pittsburgh Steelers — 5–12
 4. Cleveland Browns — 0–17

This might be my most brutal division prediction.

Baltimore finishes 11–6 and takes the AFC North, with Cincinnati only one game behind at 10–7.

And yet, I have the Bengals missing the playoffs entirely on a tiebreaker.

That’s how crowded I expect the AFC playoff race to be.

A 10-win team missing the postseason would be painful enough. Doing it while watching multiple other 10-win teams sneak into wild-card spots would make it even worse.

Then we get to Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

I have Pittsburgh falling all the way to 5–12, but even that looks good compared to what I’m predicting for the Browns.

0–17.

Going winless in today’s NFL is incredibly difficult, and I didn’t set out trying to make Cleveland go 0–17. But when I worked through the schedule, I never found a game where I felt comfortable picking them.

Maybe they steal one somewhere.

For now, I’m sticking with zero.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans — 12–5 — Division Champions
 2. Jacksonville Jaguars — 9–8
 3. Indianapolis Colts — 5–12
 4. Tennessee Titans — 3–14

Houston is one of the teams I’m highest on in the AFC.

I have the Texans finishing 12–5, comfortably taking the South and putting themselves squarely into the AFC championship conversation.

Jacksonville hangs around at 9–8, but in this conference, nine wins simply isn’t enough.

Indianapolis drops to 5–12, Tennessee finishes 3–14, and the division ultimately belongs to Houston.

But unlike Buffalo and Baltimore, I don’t think Houston’s season ends with simply winning its division.

More on that in a minute.

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos — 13–4 — Division Champions
 2. Kansas City Chiefs — 10–7 — Wild Card
 3. Los Angeles Chargers — 10–7 — Wild Card
 4. Las Vegas Raiders — 5–12

Here’s probably the prediction that gets the most attention:

Denver wins the AFC West.

Not only that—I have the Broncos finishing 13–4 with the best record in the AFC.

Kansas City isn’t going anywhere. I still have the Chiefs winning 10 games and reaching the playoffs. The Chargers also finish 10–7 and claim the final wild-card spot.

That means three teams from the AFC West make the postseason.

Unfortunately for Cincinnati, that crowded West is also part of the reason a 10–7 Bengals team finds itself on the outside looking in.

Las Vegas rounds out the division at 5–12.

AFC Playoff Picture

Based on those records, my AFC playoff field looks like this:

1. Denver Broncos — 13–4
 2. Buffalo Bills — 12–5
 3. Houston Texans — 12–5
 4. Baltimore Ravens — 11–6
 5. New England Patriots — 11–6
 6. Kansas City Chiefs — 10–7
 7. Los Angeles Chargers — 10–7

And then the fun begins.

Wild Card Round

Baltimore over New England

New England’s regular season is one of the bigger surprises in my predictions, but Baltimore is where I have their run ending. The Ravens move on.

Buffalo over Kansas City

It almost feels wrong seeing Buffalo and Kansas City meet this early in the postseason, but that’s what happens when the Chiefs enter as a wild card.

This time, I have Buffalo advancing.

Houston over Los Angeles Chargers

I like the Chargers enough to put them in the playoffs, but I like Houston considerably more.

Texans move on.

Divisional Round

Denver over Baltimore

Baltimore is dangerous, but the No. 1 seed matters. Denver gets the week off, gets Baltimore at home, and advances.

Houston over Buffalo

This is the game that might surprise people.

I have Buffalo winning 12 games and looking like one of the best teams in football throughout the regular season.

But I think Houston is capable of beating them when it matters most.

The Texans advance to the AFC Championship Game.

AFC Championship

Denver Broncos over Houston Texans

And there it is.

My AFC representative in the Super Bowl is the Denver Broncos.

A 13–4 regular season. The No. 1 seed. A divisional-round victory over Baltimore. Then a win over Houston with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

That is a massive prediction considering the quality of teams in this conference, but after going through the schedule game by game, Denver is the team that kept rising to the top.

Buffalo is still dangerous.

Houston could absolutely make the leap.

Baltimore remains Baltimore.

Kansas City will never be a team anyone wants to see in January.

But when I put all 272 games through the exercise, my AFC ultimately ended in Denver.

The Broncos are my 2026 AFC Champions.

Tomorrow, we do it all over again with the NFC.

And once both conferences are finished, we’ll have our full playoff bracket—and my pick to win Super Bowl LXI.

Where Legends Reign.